In order to capitalize on continued rising oil prices, I entered into 2 credit spread positions offsetting each other for a net neutral cash outflow. I chose ranges about 10% from current price to expire in August. I used USO, the oil ETF, which doesn't match the exact oil price, but tracks it accurately in lockstep with a steady ratio. From a pure investment standpoint, yes, this is market timing. From a personal finance standpoint, this is hedging against continued high oil (gas) prices and in the event I lose money due to a rapid drop in energy prices, at least I will have a lower personal outflow for energy. If I played the opposite way, I would be compounding the pain with double increases. The trend is your friend and I am doubtful we'll see a rapid decline in oil prices given supply/demand dynamics and global political issues developing.
Airlines and trucking companies hedge energy prices, why shouldn't consumers and investors?
Here's how the credit spread works:
Specific to USO, when it was trading at 115 today, I bought 2 call contracts of Aug125's at 3.80 each and sold 2 call contracts of Aug 132's at 2.20 for a net outflow of 1.60 each or 3.20 total. Conversely, I sold 2 put contracts of Aug 104's for 2.90 and bought 2 put contracts of Aug96's for a net inflow of 1.60 each or 3.20 total. The 3.20 in and out balanced each other out and now I have a bull position on oil for free.











3 COMMENTS HERE
If I understand your example, your range is 96 - 132 correct? Seems wide as a range where the options expire worthless. I would rather, if I was going to go through this effort and pay the trading commissions, to have a better chance at making $.
Actually, those are the outer ranges where losses and gains are capped. There only needs to be a 10% move up to 125 to start "in the money". So, if say a 12% move occurs to 128, I'd make $600 if I held to expiry, or I could sell just prior with a little extra time premium for ~$650 or more.
There are some benefits to playing this with spreads as opposed to other options plays:
-buying a straigh put or call opens you up to loss of premiums at expiry: 2/3 of all options expire worthless
-buying naked puts or calls leaves you with unlimited liability if a run up or down occurs. With spreads, you liabiity is capped.
-the liquidity requirements are drastically reduced if you cap your ends with a spread as opposed to selling a naked option.
-finally, the commission is the same for a spread as it is for a signle option; you just have to pick spread in the complex option tab or equivalent with your broker.
http://www.mightybargainhunter.com/2008/07/07/carinval-of-personal-finance-american-flag-edition/
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