| 3 COMMENTS HERE ]

In order to capitalize on continued rising oil prices, I entered into 2 credit spread positions offsetting each other for a net neutral cash outflow. I chose ranges about 10% from current price to expire in August. I used USO, the oil ETF, which doesn't match the exact oil price, but tracks it accurately in lockstep with a steady ratio. From a pure investment standpoint, yes, this is market timing. From a personal finance standpoint, this is hedging against continued high oil (gas) prices and in the event I lose money due to a rapid drop in energy prices, at least I will have a lower personal outflow for energy. If I played the opposite way, I would be compounding the pain with double increases. The trend is your friend and I am doubtful we'll see a rapid decline in oil prices given supply/demand dynamics and global political issues developing.


Airlines and trucking companies hedge energy prices, why shouldn't consumers and investors?


Here's how the credit spread works:


Let's start with the bull side. You buy a call and sell a call with closer/further strike prices, and you pay a net premium outflow, but benefit from any move in stock price upward, and your profits are then capped at the upper contract you sold.
On the bear side, you sell a put and buy a put with a closer/further strike price, and you recieve a net premium inflow, but you'll be penalized by a move in the stock downward once it surpasses the strike price of the put you sold. Your losses are capped at the lowest end of the contract you bought.

Specific to USO, when it was trading at 115 today, I bought 2 call contracts of Aug125's at 3.80 each and sold 2 call contracts of Aug 132's at 2.20 for a net outflow of 1.60 each or 3.20 total. Conversely, I sold 2 put contracts of Aug 104's for 2.90 and bought 2 put contracts of Aug96's for a net inflow of 1.60 each or 3.20 total. The 3.20 in and out balanced each other out and now I have a bull position on oil for free.


Here's how it will work in this example:


In the event oil spikes to move USO at 132 or greater, my maximum profit is $1400 (Aug132 call options minus the Aug125 call options with 2 contracts). In the event USO drops precipitously to 96 or lower, my maximum loss is $1600 (Aug104 put options minus 96 put options with 2 contracts). If oil trades in a range without suprassing either of the inner strike prices (USO between 104 and 125 per share), nothing happens. All options expire worthless and I'm free to enter into the same position again.


Thoughts on other neat options plays to limit exposure/increase leverage?


3 COMMENTS HERE

NJgolfer said... @ July 2, 2008 11:41 AM

If I understand your example, your range is 96 - 132 correct? Seems wide as a range where the options expire worthless. I would rather, if I was going to go through this effort and pay the trading commissions, to have a better chance at making $.

Everyday Finance said... @ July 2, 2008 2:13 PM

Actually, those are the outer ranges where losses and gains are capped. There only needs to be a 10% move up to 125 to start "in the money". So, if say a 12% move occurs to 128, I'd make $600 if I held to expiry, or I could sell just prior with a little extra time premium for ~$650 or more.

There are some benefits to playing this with spreads as opposed to other options plays:

-buying a straigh put or call opens you up to loss of premiums at expiry: 2/3 of all options expire worthless
-buying naked puts or calls leaves you with unlimited liability if a run up or down occurs. With spreads, you liabiity is capped.
-the liquidity requirements are drastically reduced if you cap your ends with a spread as opposed to selling a naked option.
-finally, the commission is the same for a spread as it is for a signle option; you just have to pick spread in the complex option tab or equivalent with your broker.

Everyday Finance said... @ July 7, 2008 9:52 PM

http://www.mightybargainhunter.com/2008/07/07/carinval-of-personal-finance-american-flag-edition/

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