| 6 COMMENTS HERE ]


It's rare that you find a stock that's going UP while the dividend is going UP to 16% at the same time. As we've seen all too often recently, when yields get into the double digits, it's because a Financial company has seen its stock slide precipitously and the market has priced in that a dividend cut is inevitable. For instance, New Century Financial was paying a 40% dividend before it became a penny stock a few weeks later.


Of course, there are the Canadian Royalty Trusts and Limited Partnerships and other outfits that carry their own set of tax complexities and are generally tied to one specific sector or commodity. However, the top dividend stock of 2008 is not beholden to the whims of the credit markets, oil prices specifically (while somewhat correlated as you'll learn) or real estate in general (REITs).


The Top Dividend Stock of 2008 is Frontline Limited and here's why:



Frontline (FRO) has seen its share price rocket this year while roughly doubling its quarterly dividend payout over the past 2 years. Frontline basically operates a set of subsidiaries and holding companies to facilitate the transport of oil/bulk/ore (OBO) as well as other hot commodities in demand, around the world. Frontline has a strategy of extensive outsourcing. Ship management, crewing and accounting services are provided by a number of independent and competing ship management companies, staffed primarily with personnel from Russia, India and the Philippines. This outsourcing strategy optimizes its cost structure while it has benefited tremendously for the insatiable global demand for the bulk that it ships. There's certainly something to be said for the correlation with the runup in commodities prices and the pricing power of Frontline itself. However, the management's been relying on both spot pricing and long term contracts and a rapid drop in all commodities classes in the near term is virtually inconceivable by even the most creative thinkers. The slowdown in the U.S. economy has very little impact on Frontline's bottom line, as this is a global player and in cities from Dubai to China, the global buildout is going gangbusters.


The last earnings report from May 22 showed a 52% jump in revenue from the same period last year, facilitating further share increases. The analysts surveyed by the street have continued to raise their forecasts for the year, with the most recent data point showing a consensus of over $6 per share for the year.


Given a 16% dividend rate, no tax complexities to consider and bright prospects into the foreseeable future, I think Frontline looks good in any portfolio.


Here's a recent snapshot of Frontline's meteoric share price rise in the past year.






Disclosure: I got into FRO years ago in my high yield Self-Directed IRA and have seen a nice capital appreciation with rising dividend payouts to boot. My only regret is that I didn't buy more along the way.


Sources: Corporate website, annual reports

6 COMMENTS HERE

Elliott said... @ June 21, 2008 3:04 AM

I've been watching FRO for a while and am really kicking myself for not getting into it sooner. One of the reasons I decided not to buy earlier this year was that FRO's stock price seemed, at the time, to have a history of regular fluctuations within a fairly predictable range. Seeing that history I thought there was no sense buying at $55/share when I could wait 6 months and pick it up at $40 something. Now that reasoning doesn't look so good. Do you thing the current climb is just an upward adjustment of the previous cycle or will I be kicking myself in 4 months for not buying in at the cheap price of $70/share?

Everyday Finance said... @ June 22, 2008 12:19 AM

Well, it would be tough to say it's "undercovered" or the word isn't out on this one, but I think that given the dividend and the leadership position FRO has now, if your time horizon is adequate to capture these payouts over a couple years, I doubt you're going to regret it.

Sure, the stock might see some fluctuations, but with a 16% yield and a Beta of less than 1, it's likely that the dividend will more than take care of any volatility and it will outperform.

I plan on holding for years unless there's some company scandal or complete collapse of the commodities complex (neither seem plausible at the moment).

MasterPo said... @ August 4, 2008 12:11 PM

The one problem I see with this and your other dividend stock picks is taxes. Yes, you can hold them in an IRA but other than that a strong portfolio of good payout dividend stocks will get you creamed on April 15th! (even more so when Obama takes office).

Everyday Finance said... @ August 4, 2008 9:31 PM

So, the main premise of my self-directed IRA is that I primarily hold high yield stocks in that account to avoid the taxes. So, these will grow for decades to come tax free.

However, even holding dividend stocks outside a tax-advantaged account isn't that bad a deal. Dividends are taxed at only 15%, whereas your short term capital gains can end up being taxed at a much higher rate. Holding mutual funds with a high turnover and distributions can have a much more deleterious impact than a simple dividend payout play.

So, in summary, I'm a fan of holding these high yielders in a self-directed IRA. But in moderation, I think they have a place in a traditional account as well if that's your only alternative (perhaps already maxed the IRA each year, etc.).

Anonymous said... @ August 5, 2008 12:13 PM

Elliot:

You were impatient. FRO trades for $56 today,

SG

Anonymous said... @ November 10, 2008 3:58 PM

...and for $31 and change today, having gone as low as $25 in the last month. Who'da thunk it back in June (which seems like a previous lifetime).

DS

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